China Is No Longer Predictable by Robert D. Kaplan

From: Stratfor.com

The United States has had it easy over the past third of a century in regards to China. Washington has been able to proclaim moral superiority over the Communist Party dictatorship in Beijing, even as those very dictators provided Washington with a stable, businesslike relationship that fostered immense opportunities for American companies in China and for the American economy overall. China's rulers, ever since Deng Xiaoping consolidated power in 1978, may have been nominally communists, but they have also been professionals and technocrats who have ruled in a self-effacing, collegial style. Yes, they may oppress dissidents, but they have also been enlightened autocrats by the standards of the suffocating rulers who have governed in the Middle East.

But the purging of the pseudo populist boss of the megacity of Chongqing, Bo Xilai, may indicate that a less predictable period in Chinese politics lies ahead. Bo was something not seen in China since Mao Zedong: a leader with real charisma. Bo may indicate that the age of the technocrats will give way to the age of politicians -- and politicians, even in liberal democracies, exploit people's emotions. That could lead to more erratic, nationalistic rulers.

It is famously said that democracies don't go to war against each other. But the problem is not democracy; the problem is a vast and unruly state like China in the messy, decadeslong process of liberalization. The truth is that these Communist dictators in Beijing, whom the media love to hate, may turn out to have been the most benign and easy-to-deal-with Chinese leaders that Americans will see in their lifetime. President Hu Jintao is as good as it gets from the point of view of a State Department policy planner.

China's autocrats have for many years been nervously riding a domestic tiger. With communism no longer a philosophical organizing principle for the state, they have had to justify their rule by delivering double-digit annual economic growth -- or close to that -- to provide jobs for a potentially restive younger generation.

Thus, even while China has amassed impressive new air and sea power, it has -- by and large -- not tried to employ that power in a particularly hostile way. China's communist rulers have had too much domestically to worry about without creating new problems for themselves by constantly challenging the United States or its allies on the high seas. While China's push to acquire air-sea power most specifically dates to 1996, when Beijing was humiliated by Washington's ability to drive two aircraft carrier strike groups through waters near the Taiwan Strait, the building of a substantial air force and navy have so far been part of the natural, organic process of a new and rising great power. At least so far, it has not been particularly destabilizing to the world or regional order, unlike Iran's push to develop a nuclear capability as part of a drive for Near Eastern leadership. China's rulers may be dictatorial, but they are not radical and messianic.