From: Telegraph
There has been a 60 per cent increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, they equivalent of almost a million square miles.
In a rebound from 2012's record low an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia's northern shores, days before the annual re-freeze is even set to begin.
The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes.
A leaked report to the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) seen by the Mail on Sunday, has led some scientists to claim that the world is heading for a period of cooling that will not end until the middle of this century.
If correct, it would contradict computer forecasts of imminent catastrophic warming. The news comes several years after the BBC predicted that the arctic would be ice-free by 2013.
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23 Jun 2013
Despite the original forecasts, major climate research centres now accept that there has been a “pause” in global warming since 1997.
The original predictions led to billions being invested in green measures to combat the effects of climate change.
The changing predictions have led to the UN's climate change's body holding a crisis meeting, and the the IPCC is due to report on the situation in October.
A pre-summit meeting will be held later this month.
But the leaked documents are said to show that the governments who fund the IPCC are demanding 1,500 changes to the Fifth Assessment Report - a three-volume study issued every six or seven years – as they claim its current draft does not properly explain the pause.
The extent to which temperatures will rise with carbon dioxide levels and how much of the warming over the past 150 years, a total of 0.8C, is down to human greenhouse gas emissions are key issues in the debate.
The IPCC says it is “95 per cent confident” that global warming has been caused by humans - up from 90 per cent in 2007 – according to the draft report.
However, US climate expert Professor Judith Curry has questioned how this can be true as that rather than increasing in confidence, “uncertainty is getting bigger” within the academic community.
Long-term cycles in ocean temperature, she said, suggest the world may be approaching a period similar to that from 1965 to 1975, when there was a clear cooling trend.
At the time some scientists forecast an imminent ice age.
Professor Anastasios Tsonis, of the University of Wisconsin, said: "We are already in a cooling trend, which I think will continue for the next 15 years at least. There is no doubt the warming of the 1980s and 1990s has stopped.”
The IPCC is said to maintain that their climate change models suggest a pause of 15 years can be expected. Other experts agree that natural cycles cannot explain all of the recorded warming.
Showing posts with label IPCC. Show all posts
Showing posts with label IPCC. Show all posts
Monday, September 09, 2013
Thursday, August 01, 2013
Sea Level Rise Surprise by S Fred Singer
From American Thinker
Driving the seemingly endless climate-treaty negotiations, the most widely feared consequence of Global Warming appears to be a catastrophic rise in sea level (SLR). Environmental advocacy groups are filling the airwaves with lurid images of flooding of Bangladesh and Pacific islands, and raising the specter of hundreds of millions of environmental refugees demanding care and compensation.
Even sober scientists, while not endorsing such obvious scare stories, predict an acceleration of the ongoing global rise, which a system of tidal gauges places at about 18 cm (7 inches) during the 20th century. Economists concerned with trying to estimate a 'social cost' of carbon-dioxide emissions predict huge economic losses from future SLR. Not surprisingly, insurance companies, looking to raise premiums, are cheering them on.
However, more detailed analyses of actual observations suggest an opposite outcome: A climate warming might even slow down SLR -- rather than accelerate it. To understand this counter-intuitive result, one must first get rid of false leads -- just as in a detective story. The misleading argument here is the oft-quoted statement that the climate warmed by 1degF (0.6 C) in the last 100 years and that SL rose by 18 cm. Both parts of the statement may well be true; but the second part does not necessarily follow from the first.
Curiously, Barack Obama predicted a deceleration of SLR when he accepted his party's nomination in 2008: "This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow, and our planet began to heal." Some tidal-gauge data do show deceleration, but starting in 1960. Hey, wasn't that the year during which Obama was conceived?
Driving the seemingly endless climate-treaty negotiations, the most widely feared consequence of Global Warming appears to be a catastrophic rise in sea level (SLR). Environmental advocacy groups are filling the airwaves with lurid images of flooding of Bangladesh and Pacific islands, and raising the specter of hundreds of millions of environmental refugees demanding care and compensation.
Even sober scientists, while not endorsing such obvious scare stories, predict an acceleration of the ongoing global rise, which a system of tidal gauges places at about 18 cm (7 inches) during the 20th century. Economists concerned with trying to estimate a 'social cost' of carbon-dioxide emissions predict huge economic losses from future SLR. Not surprisingly, insurance companies, looking to raise premiums, are cheering them on.
However, more detailed analyses of actual observations suggest an opposite outcome: A climate warming might even slow down SLR -- rather than accelerate it. To understand this counter-intuitive result, one must first get rid of false leads -- just as in a detective story. The misleading argument here is the oft-quoted statement that the climate warmed by 1degF (0.6 C) in the last 100 years and that SL rose by 18 cm. Both parts of the statement may well be true; but the second part does not necessarily follow from the first.
Curiously, Barack Obama predicted a deceleration of SLR when he accepted his party's nomination in 2008: "This was the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow, and our planet began to heal." Some tidal-gauge data do show deceleration, but starting in 1960. Hey, wasn't that the year during which Obama was conceived?
Tuesday, November 22, 2011
Possible New Climate Gate Emails Leaked
FROM: THE DAILY CALLER
A new batch of emails similar to the original Climategate emails, which were released in November 2009, were leaked Tuesday morning. The 5,000 new emails, pirated from University of East Anglia in Norwich, England, appear to have been culled at around the same time as the first round.
They have been released just days before the upcoming United Nations Climate Conference in Durban, South Africa. The first round of emails were released a month before the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen.
The university has yet to confirm the authenticity of the emails, reported the Guardian, but Michael Mann — the climate scientist at the center of the first Climategate data falsifying scandal — said the emails appear to include his.
Climategate 1.0 included the anonymous release of 1,000 emails and included communications between climate scientists from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that showed climate scientists conspiring to manipulate and obscure data that might potentially contradict theories of rising global climate temperatures. Professor Mann, the scientist who authored a theory of climate change that depicted the rise in temperatures on a graph shaped like a hockey stick, was implicated in the first round.
“Well, they look like mine,” Mann said of the emails, “but I hardly see anything that appears damning at all, despite them having been taken out of context. I guess they had very little left to work with, having culled in the first round the emails that could most easily be taken out of context to try to make me look bad.”
The emergence of the new emails has GOP lawmakers calling for further reining in of the Obama EPA.
Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe — who has said for several years that a crisis of confidence would develop in the IPCC if significant reforms were not made to the organizations’s peer-review process — released a statement on Tuesday stating that, in addition to the IPCC’s faulty science and Climategate 1.0, the emails are “just one more reason to halt the EPA’s job killing global warming agenda.”
Inhofe said that the Obama EPA’s global warming regulations are the result of “endangerment findings” based “on the flawed science of the IPCC.”
“The crisis of confidence in the IPCC translates into a crisis of confidence in the EPA’s endangerment finding,” said Inhofe. “The IPCC science has already disintegrated under the weight of its own flaws, and I believe it will only be a matter of time before the endangerment finding follows suit. It’s time for the Obama administration to stop trying to resurrect policies that are all pain for no gain, and get to work on reviving our economy.”
A new batch of emails similar to the original Climategate emails, which were released in November 2009, were leaked Tuesday morning. The 5,000 new emails, pirated from University of East Anglia in Norwich, England, appear to have been culled at around the same time as the first round.
They have been released just days before the upcoming United Nations Climate Conference in Durban, South Africa. The first round of emails were released a month before the U.N. Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen.
The university has yet to confirm the authenticity of the emails, reported the Guardian, but Michael Mann — the climate scientist at the center of the first Climategate data falsifying scandal — said the emails appear to include his.
Climategate 1.0 included the anonymous release of 1,000 emails and included communications between climate scientists from the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that showed climate scientists conspiring to manipulate and obscure data that might potentially contradict theories of rising global climate temperatures. Professor Mann, the scientist who authored a theory of climate change that depicted the rise in temperatures on a graph shaped like a hockey stick, was implicated in the first round.
“Well, they look like mine,” Mann said of the emails, “but I hardly see anything that appears damning at all, despite them having been taken out of context. I guess they had very little left to work with, having culled in the first round the emails that could most easily be taken out of context to try to make me look bad.”
The emergence of the new emails has GOP lawmakers calling for further reining in of the Obama EPA.
Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe — who has said for several years that a crisis of confidence would develop in the IPCC if significant reforms were not made to the organizations’s peer-review process — released a statement on Tuesday stating that, in addition to the IPCC’s faulty science and Climategate 1.0, the emails are “just one more reason to halt the EPA’s job killing global warming agenda.”
“The crisis of confidence in the IPCC translates into a crisis of confidence in the EPA’s endangerment finding,” said Inhofe. “The IPCC science has already disintegrated under the weight of its own flaws, and I believe it will only be a matter of time before the endangerment finding follows suit. It’s time for the Obama administration to stop trying to resurrect policies that are all pain for no gain, and get to work on reviving our economy.”
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