Yesterday, President Obama and Defense Secretary Robert Gates publicly scrapped a land based missile defense system for our allies in Poland and the Czech Republic. It should be noted that President Obama's decision to retain Robert Gates at defense has momentarily given him cover on this matter. It was after all Secretary Gates who presented the option to former President Bush and he is on board with the President in scrapping it.
One must be fair and note that the President has not suggested that our allies will be denied missile defense. The details are unknown yet, but it has been stated that mobile land defense and sea based AEGIS defense will likely be the alternative to a fixed missile defense. This move is prompted in the belief that the threats to Eastern Europe are short and medium range missiles, not long range missiles as has been speculated of Iran.
The President's decision has been met with a stunning measure of silence from our allies in Eastern Europe. The original missile defense plan was ostensibly approved in principle to defend against long range missiles from Iran. Russia was dismissive of this notion. Vladimir Putin has long supported providing nuclear technologies to Iran, publicly stating his belief that the Ayatollahs of Iran have only the most peaceful of intentions. He therefore has suggested that a missile defense is actually designed to be offensive and intended for use in a future conflict with Russia.
It would be naive to dismiss Vladimir Putin's concerns out of hand. A missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic could after all deflect any aggressive actions by Russia in the region. If that were his intention. Clearly, I do believe Eastern Europe given the harsh conditions for 40 years under Soviet occupation, is seeking to check any "potential" Putin designs.
Vladimir Putin is not an idiot. He clearly understands that the Ayatollahs in Iran are not pursuing nuclear technology for exclusively peaceful objectives. Such a notion if it is to believed can only be rationalized by the naive and foolish.
Where does this leave us? The terrible reality of this decision by President Obama is that it raises historic fears in Poland and the Czech Republic that once again they are about to be abandoned. If there is to be an alternative defense plan presented, why not provide details of the alternatives alongside the announcement? Our allies deserve to have some peace of mind. The failure to provide a bona fide alternative has undermined confidence in the President's leadership and our commitment to them, our allies.
There is a larger issue at hand. It has been speculated that missile defense could be used as a bargaining chip in return for Russian guarantees to support stronger sanctions against Iran. The following questions must be asked: First, was there an agreement reached with Putin for increased sanctions on Iran? If the answer is yes, then the decision can credibly be defended, at least in a geopolitical context.
If, on the other hand this decision was reached without any tacit understanding from Russia, then why not hold out for one?
How will this be interpreted by Vladimir Putin? If, you believe as I do that Putin fancies himself as a 21st Century Peter the Great, then he clearly views this decision by our President as a sign of weakness. If one holds an inexplicably high opinion of Putin, in spite of the body of evidence to the contrary, well good luck with that.
Vladimir Putin has accomplished more than he likely thought possible. He continues to support Iranian nuclear enhancement, thereby complicitly endangering world peace. Until our President provides a viable alternative to our former defense agreement with Poland, it can quite reasonably be determined that it has empowered both Vladimir Putin, the Ayotollahs in Iran and risks extending their influence well beyond their present capacity.
It may be quite unfair and perhaps inaccurate, but I suspect Mr. Putin and his buddies in Tehran are sipping a little champagne and celebrating an unexpected,inexplicable and potentially incendiary victory.
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